By: Chasse Rehwinkel
With help from Brandon Marchand and Joe Piehler
With baseball’s version of the World Series complete–my condolences to Phillies fans–it’s now poker’s turn to pick a world champion as the World Series of Poker restarts on Saturday, November 7.
Play halted on Main Event play when we got down to a final table of nine way back in July. The break was created so ESPN could air their other WSOP coverage before a champion was crowned, an idea that was first tried last year resulting in a fairly good spike in WSOP ratings on ESPN.
While the players have been on break the world has had plenty of time to wonder who will take down the top prize of $8.5 million and become the next world champion.
Instead of just rattling off the life stories of each player left I have decided to make this a little more interesting.
So, my roommate–the Goose–my good friend Joe “Drexx” Piehler–who I grew up learning the game with–and I decided to ante-up for a little wager on the final table results.
Joe "Drexx" Piehler...nah, but you'd follow his advice even if it was
The rules were simple:
Each of us put up $5 and picked the results of the final table. Whoever picks the most correct finishes wins the money, and if there is a tie the person who had the highest correct pick wins—i.e. if Drexx and I had three correct picks each, but Drexx’s highest correct pick was 2nd place and mine was only 4th, Drexx wins in the tie breaker.
Got it?
Excellent! Okay, without any further delay here are your 2009 WSOP Main Event final tablists…
The Players:
Seat 1: Darvin Moon with 58,930,000 in chips (Chip leader)
Our chip leader is also the least experienced player at the table. A self-employed logger—I didn’t know loggers could be self-employed, but whatever—from Maryland dominated the final levels as we played down to nine by being, as Moon stated, “the luckiest player on the final day.” Not much is known about Moon, he seemingly disappeared during the few months off from the tournament to go “hunting” and he has refused to sign with any major online poker site. What is known about Moon is that he carries about 30 percent of the chips in play to the table on Saturday, which could make him a formidable force as the tournament plays out.
Goose’s take: If he can avoid playing loose or getting into too many hands, he has a real chance at this, but I think his inexperience and lack of professional skill prevents him from staying in first at the end of the day.
Drexx’s take: I challenge any poker player to find one good aspect of Moon’s game, because I certainly couldn’t. Assuming he isn’t holding the deck like he was in July, I can’t see Moon making it to the top three.
My take: I’m still waiting for it to come out that Moon’s logger story is actually a total act and he’s really a big time rounder from the East Coast, making him one of the greatest hustlers of all-time. That being said, no, I can’t see the logger from Maryland emerging out of the woods after four months and taking this thing down.
Live earnings: Zip; Known online earnings: Nada
Seat 2: James Akenhead with 6,800,000 (9th)
Akenhead is a young poker pro who hails from London, England and is arguably the second best player left in the tournament. The highly respected cash game player has been making big waves the last few years playing across the pond and has made two WSOP final tables in addition to the big one—including a ninth place finish at the Main Event of this year’s WSOP Europe. Akenhead has been referred to by many European pros as the “English Ivey,” but with the blinds at 120,000-240,000 with a 30,000 ante and his chipstack at only 6,800,000 Akenhead has an uphill battle in front of him. On a kind of unrelated note, I enjoy the fact that the “English Ivey” has about 3,000,000 chips less than the “American Ivey,” Phil Ivey…take that England!
Goose’s take: I really wanted to put Akenhead a little further up than this, but I don’t envy anybody that Phil Ivey has position on.
Drexx’s take: Akenhead played down from the top 18 perfectly, bouncing back from somewhere between five and ten big blinds at the start of the final two tables to having a third of the average stack once we got down to the final nine.
My take: I really want to see this guy play, but unfortunately he is just too good to hang around and finish in one of the middle positions and doesn’t have a healthy enough stack to make many moves. So, it’s probably a good bet that Akenhead will go out early.
Live earnings: $776,309; Known online earnings: None
Seat 3: Phil Ivey with 9,765,000 in chips (7th)
Five WSOP bracelets, one WPT title and more than $10 million in career tournament earnings, it’s mind boggling that Ivey makes his “real money” in cash games and not tournaments. There is perhaps no other player in the world more respected than Phil Ivey and simply having his presence at the final table will increase the WSOP’s popularity by leaps and bounds. It has already been a fantastic WSOP for Ivey, who, in addition to his run in the Main Event, has made four cashes for two final tables and two WSOP gold bracelets. An Ivey victory in the Main Event will not only tie the record for most bracelets won in a year at three—a feat he actually already accomplished in 2002—but it would also skyrocket Ivey into first place on the all-time money list—actually fifth place or higher will give Ivey the top money spot, leaping over Jamie Gold and Daniel Negreanu. Even though Ivey comes into the final table seventh in chips, Ivey’s exceptional skill makes him a major threat to take down the top prize.
Goose’s take: Phil Ivey, I think, may be too hurt by his chip stack to pull it off. No knock on this guy’s talent—if anyone can take such a small chip stack and win it, it’s this guy—but eventually luck will catch up to Ivey.
Drexx’s take: You won’t find too much argument against Ivey being the best player at that table. However, I made a bet with the Chicago Rounder on Ivey to win before this pick’em prop, and now feel the need to hedge it.
My take: I don’t want to be that fool that picks Ivey to go out early because of his small stack, but saying Ivey won’t go out early is basically picking him to win it all. I don’t know if I can make that statement.
Live earnings: $10,207,281; Known online earnings: none
Seat 4: Kevin Schaffel with 12,390,000 in chips (6th)
One of the unknowns at the final table when play halted in July, no player in the final nine has been hotter than Schaffel since players went on the break. Before making the Main Event final table Schaffel’s career earnings were just over $160,000 with no real major deep finishes. Since making the final table, however, Schaffel has shed his unknown status by finishing second in the WPT Legends of Poker event for $471,670 and nineteenth at the EPT London Main Event for $27,063—nothing like a little confidence to get things going, huh? Schaffel’s deep runs since the break has made him a darkhorse candidate to take down the championship and his middling chip stack means he’ll have enough room to play his normal patient style, at least in the beginning.
Goose’s take: Schaffel is one of the weaker players at the table, but he has enough chips to wait out the good hands.
Drexx’s take: Schaffel’s self-proclaimed M.O. is to be “patient and calm.” I can only see his patience—read “tightness”—increase this weekend. He won’t exactly get blinded off, but I don’t think he’ll get involved as early as he should with a half average stack.
My take: I honestly don’t think people give Schaffel’s game enough respect, but his just ok table position and middle stack probably will prevent a deep run from this semi-pro.
Live earnings: $667,412 Known online earnings: none
Okay, the real Joe "Drexx" Piehler (In teal)...ha! I love Gettys's royalty free pics!
Seat 5: Steven Begleiter with 29,885,000 (3rd)
Begleiter also made a deep run in the same WPT event Schaffel finished second in, finishing ninth for a little over $39,000. However, in spite of his success post-break many analysts are picking Begleiter to flame-out come final table time. This might have something to do with the 24 years Begleiter spent working at the controversial investments firm Bear Stearns—a firm that has been, maybe appropriately, vilified by the public after its collapse last year. However, Begleiter’s predicted poor finish might also have something to do with his inexperience and somewhat weak play during the final days of the tournament. Who knows really…might even be due to his unfortunate nickname “Begs”—if you don’t get it think what investment firms have recently been doing to the government.
Goose’s take: He has a tendency for some loose play and that could come back to hurt him here.
Drexx’s take: I like Begleiter’s aggressiveness a lot, but he caught a lot of cards in August. I’m not sure, then, if he’ll play the same way when the cards dry up.
My take: The worst player at the table in my mind, I expect him to blow off most of his large chip stack in an ill-advised play.
Live earnings: $39,240; Known online earnings: none
Seat 6: Eric Buchman with 34,800,000 in chips (2nd)
Arguably the most dangerous player still in contention due of his strong skill set and chip stack, Buchman enters the final weekend second in chips and in one of the best positions at the table. This will be Buchman’s third WSOP final table of his career and his second of the year after finishing sixth in the $2,500 Omaha/Stud Split event earlier this summer. Buchman in interviews has repeatedly stated that his eyes are set firmly on winning the $8.5 million first prize and nothing else, a mentality that has made him the odds-on favorite for many poker pros.
Goose’s take: He’s got the experience, skill and—unlike some of the other pros—the chip stack at the start of play.
Drexx’s take: With two bets in front of him, Buchman was able to dump Tens preflop, when the two bets were Nines and Kings. Mix his skill with his chips, if he can take one big pot off Moon or Begleiter early, I see him going all the way.
My take: Between Joe Cada, Phil Ivey and Eric Buchman, I predict one will have a nice sized chip stack with five or four players left and will turn that stack into a win, and I think Buchman’s the favorite to do it.
Live earnings: $958,622; Known online earnings: none
Seat 7: Joe Cada with 13,215,000 in chips (5th)
Lost in the reports of how well 2009 Main Event final tablers have done since the break—Begleiter and Schaffel’s WPT runs and Akenhead and Saout’s runs at the WSOP Europe Main Event—I think is Cada’s online victory in a second chance event during the World Championships of Online Poker. Sure it wasn’t in a flashy, televised major event, but Cada waded through a field of 712 to take down the $128,872 first prize. At 21 years old Cada is the youngest member of the final table and is the only one that can break Peter Eastgate’s record as the youngest player to win a World Championship, a record set last year. Don’t let his youth fool you though; Cada is a dangerous player and his online experience has made him the favorite in the minds of more than a few poker professionals.
Goose’s take: I like Joe Cada and would like to see him finish real well here. Problem is, he doesn’t have the live game experience and he may struggle under the pressure of the big game.
Drexx’s take: I was real impressed by Cada’s play. There were a couple times, especially against Ivey, where he had some sick reads. Cada will make it to the top three, mark my words.
My take: Cada is one of the three player I think can win this, the others being Ivey and Buchman. He’s young, but he’s skilled.
Live earnings: $28,214; Known online earnings: $500,368
Seriously Joe "Drexx" Piehler...sorry still messing around with you...maybe
Seat 8: Antoine Saout with 9,500,000 in chips (8th)
The young Frenchman has gotten little air time on ESPN’s broadcasts up until this point and his small chip stack coupled with his quiet demeanor—I say he’s quiet, but he might actually be very talkative in his native tongue and we’d never know it—will likely keep his exposure down. That being said, Saout has been the most successful player since they went to break, cashing five times in major events, including a seventh place finish in the WSOP Europe Main Event. So in spite of his small chip stack and quiet presence, Saout might make some noise come Saturday—I know, I know, but I had to.
Goose’s take: Saout is eighth in chips and seated directly to the right of Jeff Shulman, two things that don’t bode well for him.
Drexx’s take: I didn’t see any play from Saout that I was particularly inspired by, aside from one great short stack all in bluff. He seems like an “ABC” kind of guy, and as one of the short stacks I pick him to drop first.
My take: No idea…seriously, none at all…maybe eighth?
Live earnings: $264,929; Known online earnings: none
Seat 9: Jeff Shulman with 19,580,000 in chips (4th)
Only one player at this year’s final table, including Phil Ivey, can claim that they’ve been this far before, and that player is Jeff Shulman. The editor-in-chief of Card Player Magazine, Shulman made news immediately after the WSOP final table went on break when he claimed that if he were to win he would throw the WSOP bracelet away in protest of how Harrah’s Casinos run the event. He followed that controversy by hiring vocal poker champion Phil “The Poker Brat” Hellmuth as his coach, a move that certainly solidified his villain status at the table. Say what you will about Shulman’s off the table antics, however, the 34 year-old poker pro can play a bit, and has over $2 million in career earnings including that aforementioned final table at the Main Event in 2000.
Goose’s take: He will be focused, dedicated and ready to go come game time. Also, it doesn’t hurt that tournament expert Phil Hellmuth has been coaching him specifically to win this table.
Drexx’s take: Aside from Moon, I’d call Shulman the worst player at the table. I see Shulman getting sucked in by the aggressiveness of Begleiter and Cada and taking a stand at the wrong time.
My take: Shulman is just too tight to take this one down. He’ll improve from his 2000 result, but not by much.
Live earnings: $1,291,826, Known online earnings: none
Picks!
| Finish | Goose | Drexx | Chicago Rounder |
| 1 | Eric Buchman | Eric Buchman | Eric Buchman |
| 2 | Jeff Shulman | Joe Cada | Phil Ivey |
| 3 | Davin Moon | Phil Ivey | Davin Moon |
| 4 | Phil Ivey | Darvin Moon | Joe Cada |
| 5 | Joe Cada | Steve Begleiter | Kevin Schaffel |
| 6 | Steve Begleiter | Kevin Schaffel | Jeff Shulman |
| 7 | Kevin Schaffel | Jeff Shulman | Steve Begleiter |
| 8 | James Akenhead | James Akenhead | Antoine Saout |
| 9 | Antoine Saout | Antoine Saout | James Akenhead |
Random WSOP Facts
- After the WSOP Main Event went on break in August players the final nine player were each given the last place prize money of $1,263,602–I guess to “tide” them over–and the remaining prize money was placed in a bank to draw interest. After three months $1,321 in interest was added to the final prize pool.
- Of that $1,321 in “new money,” a tremendous $3 will be added to the eighth place prize…score!
- The WSOP final table that Eric Buchman made earlier this year–the $2,500 Omaha/Stud Split event–was won by fellow final tablist Phil Ivey.
- The champion of the Main Event will win more in prize money than any other top individual prize in American sports. In fact the top prize at the WSOP Main Event is more than the Daytona 500, Indianapolis 500, U.S. Open (golf) and U.S. Open’s (tennis) top prizes combined–$8,547,042 vs. $7,528,395.
I've said it before and I'll say it again, take that car racing!
- The first time in his life chipleader Darvin Moon was on a jet plane was when he came to Las Vegas to play in this tournament. Moon also doesn’t own a computer nor does he have an email address.
- Although certainly proving himself as of late in the poker world, semi-pro Kevin Schaffel’s game might not be poker. Schaffel is a scratch golfer and known to play for big money.
- In an online vote Shulman put on Card Player Magazine’s website, it was determined he would give the Main Event bracelet, if he won, to The Colbert Show‘s host Stephan Colbert.
- A well known professional poker player has not won the Main Event since 2001, when “The Matador” Carlos Mortensen took down the top spot.
