By: Brandon Marchand
Brandon Marchand, or the” Goose” as we affectionately call him, is a football fan “extraordinaire,” watching the NFL action every week, managing a middling fantasy football team and participating in his annual family pick’em league.
Although the Goose is probably best described as an average football fan, with his spot on the 2001 McQuaid Jesuit freshmen football scout team counting as the only thing on his resume that could be even remotely called “playing experience,” he has been able to be somewhat successful at picking the results from week to week.
So without further adieu, here’s my roommate and resident armchair quarterback’s week nine “expert” football picks.
Good showing last week teams! I’m glad how you guys really banded together and gave me a nice 10-3 week. Of course, some of you *cough* Lions, Giants, Cardinals *cough* decided to let me down, but most everybody pulled it together. Let’s take that momentum into this week gentlemen.
Bye Teams: Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns, Minnesota Vikings, New Jersey Jets, Oakland Raiders, St. Louis Rams.
(Home teams in caps)
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS over Kansas City Chiefs
I think this week we’ll see the good Jaguars team that has shown itself from time to time this season. I have little-to-no faith in picking this team, siding with them this year has pretty much been a complete crapshoot for me. That being said I’m still picking the Jags, which should say a lot about my feelings for the Chiefs.
Betting on Jags success...kinda like this
Baltimore Ravens over CINCINNATI BENGALS
In a rematch of the stunning week five upset that caused us all to believe in the Bengals, the Ravens will be trying to avenge their loss and put themselves in a good position within the hotly contested AFC North race—thankfully, we have the Browns to help balance out the talent in that division. The Bengals stole one away in Baltimore, but the Ravens are coming off strong beating the undefeated Broncos in a big way. Remember when I said the Bears would have an answer for Cedric Benson? Let’s pretend I said the Ravens, okay? They have a stifling run defense and a high scoring offense, a great combo for trying to take down the division leader.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS over Houston Texans
This will probably be one of the better tests for Peyton’s undefeated Colts. Matt Schaub and company have shown that they can hang in there with the best of them this season, which makes this a tough call. Both offenses are powerful and skilled, so this game will hinge on which defensive squad shows up to play, I think it will be Indy’s.
ATLANTA FALCONS over Washington Redskins*
The Redskins are the worst team in the league. Hands down. What’s that you say? They beat the winless Buccaneers? Hrmm… this is true. However, they beat them by 3 in truly an “epic” struggle. Consider this, the opponents in Washington’s first seven games are a combined 16-35, and if you remove the Giants from Week 1 and the Eagles from Week 7, Washington’s opponents are a combined 6-30. With a schedule like that you’d expect a team with players like Clinton Portis, DeAngelo Hall, London Fletcher and Chris Cooley to come up with a couple of wins. And they did…a couple… as in two. Here’s the kicker, the Lions and Chiefs are each one-win teams, with their sole victory being against Washington. The Lions, who went winless last year and couldn’t beat the Rams last week, have won against only one team in the past 1.5 seasons and that team is the Washington Redskins. Truly, the worst team this season. I like the Falcons and I am glad they get to stall their slide this week by hosting this “team.”
Betting on Skins failure... kinda like this
Green Bay Packers over TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
During the preseason many NFL analysts were picking the Packers as a possible Super Bowl team and I thought this was nuts. Now I just think it’s probably wrong, but not necessarily nuts. They may not win their division, but they are certainly showing how talented they are. If they can find a way to keep Aaron Rogers off the ground they will make the playoffs and then we’ll see what happens. The Bucs lost their shot at happiness this year when they fell to the aforementioned Worst-Team-of-the-Year, the Washington Redskins, so they deserve the spanking they’ll get from Rogers and friends this week.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS over Miami Dolphins
In most years this is a simple pick. Patriots over Dolphins you say? Don’t tell me the line, just book it for the Pats. Not so much this time. The Dolphins actually have a shot at the division, having gone 3-0 against AFC East teams this year. The wildcat is still somehow confusing people—HINT: They’re probably going to run!—and Chad Henne is making a good case at being a legitimate threat at quarterback. I’m going with experience here though, and I think the Patriots will find a way to halt the Fin’s offense. I still think it will be a great game to watch, however.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS over Carolina Panthers
Carolina stunned everyone last week in their upset of the Cardinals, but nobody has firepower like the Saints do. The fewest points the Saints have scored in a game this year is 24 and they are averaging 39. The most the Panthers have scored is 34 against the Cardinals and they are averaging just 18.3 points per game—thanks in no small part to that high scoring day against Arizona. Carolina just doesn’t have the offense to keep up with New Orleans, sorry boys.
SEATTLE SEAGULLS over Detroit Lions
Detroit, Detroit, Detroit. I really tried with you last week. I hoped, and dreamed you would repay me for finally picking you. So what did you do? You lost to the Rams. I have been trying all season to convince people that you’re for real this year. “A legitimate chance at 3-4 wins,” I told them. And you lost to the Rams. I put it all on the line for you and you let me down like this? I’m not sure which of these two teams I am more disappointed in, but since the Seagulls actually know what multiple victories in a season looks like, I’ll go with them. I’ll even put their nickname on the line and will return to calling them by their given name if they punish the Lions for letting me down last week.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS over Tennessee Titans
I really want the Titans to continue on winning, but it’s just not going to happen. The 49ers are well coached and probably very upset at falling just short of handing the Colts their first loss. The Titans have the talent to win a few more games this year, and they have the momentum to start that now, but I just don’t see it happening this week.
NEW JERSEY GIANTS over San Diego Chargers
Could the G-Men drop four straight games after a 5-0 start? Of course they can! But I doubt they will. Their offense has been playing well despite the losses, but their defense is struggling against the run. Thankfully, the Chargers are 31st in rushing yards, despite having LT and Darren “Mighty Mouse” Sproles. Look for the story line from the broadcaster’s booth to be about the two quarterbacks in this game—with Eli Manning having been drafted by the Chargers and then traded to Giants for Phillip Rivers. Of course you could also just mute the ever-annoying announcers and then have the chance to enjoy some good ole FOOTBALL!
Arizona Cardinals over CHICAGO BEARS
I would like to avoid picking either of these teams. One team beats the Browns, the other loses to the Panthers after beating the Giants. Had the Cards beaten the Panthers, even if they struggled, I think they’re the easy pick here. The Bears are just not that good this season, but the Cardinals play great against good teams and terrible against bad ones. So expect the Bears to be bad, and the Cardinals to be bad. Just who is going to be more badder, or most baddest? I think the Bears will be the worse team in this one because of their deficiency at receiver. Chicago’s pass defense is barely above average, so if Kurt Warner decides to throw to the guys in red on Sunday expect them to pull it out. Otherwise, expect Warner and Jay Cutler to compete to see who can throw more passes to the wrong team. Oh, and did I mention that Arizona is undefeated on the road and has a losing record at home this year? Which makes tons of sense for a team that could only win at home all last season…
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Nathan Vasher (31) playing the good, solid Bears D we've come to expect
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES over Dallas Cowboys
Nothing like the two top teams in a tough division fighting it out for first. At 5-2, the Iggles and the ‘Boys are tied for the lead in the NFC East and both would love to further distance themselves from the sliding Giants this week. Both teams are playing great, but Philly’s win over the Giants was convincing enough to make me believe that they will take down the Cowboys at home.
Pittsburgh Steelers over DENVER BRONCOS
The Broncos are coming back to earth after a tremendous start to their year. I still think that they’re a good team, but the Steelers have seemed to remember that they are the defending champs and they come into Denver well rested and with a four game winning streak. I can’t say enough about how shocked I am at how well the Broncos have been doing this year and I’m really impressed with how Josh McDaniels is doing despite early concerns about his leadership. Their only problem is that they’re playing a Steelers team that is hot, talented and dangerous. This should be a good game, but expect Tomlin’s troops to go into Denver to remind the Broncos who the elite teams are in this league.
*Suicide Pool Pick o’ the Week: Atlanta over Washington
Last Week: 10-3
Season: 80-36
The Peyton Manning Award for Best Performance, Week 8:
Only Peyton Manning could throw 347 yards in a bad game. So, for setting the bar so high that 31 for 48 and 347 yards with no touchdowns—no interceptions either—is one of your worst games of the season, Peyton Manning is this week’s Peyton Manning Best Performer!
The Degenerate Gambler UFL Pick of the Week:
NOBODY over Nobody
This week was a bye week, so the only game was Wednesday. Since this column is a Thursday column, there is no game to pick this week. That’s the problem with such a small league, but hopefully some expansion teams next year will prevent too many one-game weeks in year two. Oh, and in spite of no real pick I’ll still go with the home team this week.
Last Week: 1-0
Season: 2-0
Random Notes from Last Week:
- Boy did Carolina make me look like a fool. Remember how sold I was on the Cardinals turning things up after their big victory over the Giants? I was so sure they were going to smack the Panthers around in a blow out. Not quite.
- Speaking of total missteps… what the hell Giants?!?
- Bizzaro Quarterbacks!!! (See Below)
The other day, our esteemed editor asked me what some quarterbacks’ ratings would look like if they were intentionally trying to play for the defense. After some thinking, we came up with the Bizzaro Quarterback Index™. Basically, it takes the quarterback rating formula, plugs in incomplete passes instead of completions, interceptions instead of touchdowns, touchdowns instead of interceptions and interception return yards for yards. So it’s like golf, lower scores are better. It’s obviously not perfect as yards will be pretty low, but the results were pretty amusing.
For some baseline stats:
Peyton Manning is 187 for 263 with 15 TDs and 4 INTs. Those four interceptions have been returned for 51 yards.
Real QB Rating: 109.3
Bizzaro Rating: 8.3
Drew Brees is 157 for 230 with 16 TDs and 6 INTs. The six interceptions have been returned for 52 yards.
Real QB Rating: 107.6
Bizzaro Rating: 9.2
No surprises right? If these guys are trying to play for the defense, they are doing a terrible job of it. But wait! There’s more!
Cleveland Browns Quarterback Derek Anderson has a QB Rating of 36.2. His Bizzaro Rating, however, is a stunning 68.9! Which means, if the defense was to pick the quarterback, he’d pretty much be the starter. What was that? He does start? Hrmm… maybe the defenses do pick the quarterbacks for the Browns.
Yes your team is starting Derek Anderson! ... you're going to owe me $5!
Lastly, we’d be remised if we were talking about poor quarterback performances and didn’t mention JaMarcus Russell of the Oakland Raiders. He has a QB Rating of 48.3 and a Bizzaro Rating of 58.1. So, he’s not quite at the realm of Anderson, but if you’re a defense, you might consider making him start for the offense in a pinch.
The bottom line is, every time either of these guys steps onto the field, they are hurting the offense and helping the defense. It’s not even that they are a non-factor, they actively help their opponents win games. Good times!
